Ideas: The Work Force is Global
Globalization is occurring at the same
time as developing countries are experiencing an unprecedented
surge in their working-age populations. Meanwhile, the world's
developed countries are experiencing slowing rates of population
growth, even population declines in a few.
In the past, massive emigration resolved
imbalances between labor supply and labor demand in different
nations. Emigration is still a solution for many poor people in
developing countries, but the numbers of job-needy workers are
far larger than the industrialized nations are willing to absorb.
Instead, globalization is allowing them to export employers.
As developing countries modernize, their
population growth rates will become more similar to rates in the
industrialized countries. These rates differ according to countries'
willingness to accommodate cultural change. The US, generally
the most adaptable nation, has relatively robust population growth.
In contrast, countries like Japan and Austria have been unwilling
to modify traditions and practices to ease parents' work/family
conflicts, or to accept significant numbers of immigrants.
Meanwhile, educational improvements combined
with population growth are shifting the bulk of the world’s
educated working-age population to less-developed countries. New
estimates from the International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, an international think-tank based in Austria, suggest
that the industrialized countries’ share of the world’s
population with a secondary education will drop from a third in
2000 to a fourth in 2030.
If the rest of the world mimics U.S. educational
patterns by 2030, industrial nations’ share of the world’s
college-educated population will drop from 52 percent in 2000
to 30 percent. With no additional improvements, industrial countries’
share will still decline, to 46 percent.